With top recruits sitting out and MAGA primaries looming, the GOP's path to a larger Senate majority looks increasingly shaky.

Cracks in the Red Wall

Hey Small Biters,

What was once a layup is starting to look like a buzzer-beater.

Republicans had high hopes for expanding their Senate majority in 2026, but the math is no longer in their favor. With big-name recruits like Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu declining to run, and MAGA-aligned insurgents launching primary challenges, the GOP's once-confident path is full of potholes.

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Kemp's decision not to run has scrambled Republican plans in Georgia, where the party hoped a popular incumbent could unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Now, attention is shifting to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, whose flirtation with a Senate run has both thrilled the MAGA base and unnerved party leaders worried about electability.

Meanwhile in Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton is officially challenging Sen. John Cornyn, a senior Republican and close ally of leadership. The establishment is already scrambling: Cornyn has enlisted Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio in an effort to shore up his MAGA credentials. But it’s unclear if Trump himself will intervene to stop Paxton, who brings both strong grassroots support and a raft of controversies.